Estimated Number of Deaths

Israeli Professor Yaakov Garb (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) [0] has published a report [1] including IDF (!) estimates of the remaining population in Gaza in the enclaves Gaza city (1 million), Central (0.35 million) and Mawasi (0.5 million), in total 1.85 million surviving Palestinians, which corresponds to an estimated number of 2,226,544 – 1,850,000, ie 376,544, killed people [2]. See also blog [9] and video [10] for more details on Garb’s (2025) report  [1].

This corresponds to an extrapolation of the estimated number of killed people in an article which was published in The Lancet in July 2024 [3]. Linearly extrapolating the estimated death count in Gaza from June 2024 to May 2025, the estimated death count is about 20 month / 9 month * 186,000 = 413,333 killed people.

This corresponds to a citizen science project to estimate the number of killed people, which estimated 426,000 killed people until May 2025 [4].

In February 2025, Trump stated future plans of  relocating 1.7 to 1.8 million Palestinians [5], also corresponding to roughly to between 426,544 and 526,544 “missing” Palestinians.

In April 2025, Israel’s own future plans for  Gaza include 1.8 millions Palestinians [6], also corresponding to roughly 426,544 “missing” Palestinians.

The proportion of residents of the population of Gaza between an age between 0 years and 14 years was 40.4% in 2023 [2]. Assuming indiscriminate killing (ignoring reports of targeted killings of children by the IDF), the estimated number of killed children between 0 and 14 years ranges between 152,124 and 172,104 killed (young) children.

As of June 25, 2025, the official number of killed Palestinians since October 7, 2023 reported by the UN (ONCHA), is 56,772 deaths [17].

In addition, Garb’s (2025) report [1, see also 7, 8], concludes regarding the studied Israeli/American/GHF aid distribution compounds: “The internal layout of these compounds seems to bear the deep imprint of their military context and mindset. Their architecture is the inverse of well accepted and tested principles of food distribution in conflict or disaster areas, and liable to cause recurrent episodes of chaos and violence. … This setup seems likely to generate a cycle of security incidents that are then claimed to justify soldiers shooting and killing aid-seekers. “

Considering mass starvation in combination with continuing military attacks on the civilian population and other health risks (eg, infectious diseases), a super-linear increase of the death count is expected in the future, including potential tipping points after no more food is available.

Criticism

Reactions to posts on Garb’s report [1] stated it is not suitable to estimate the number of deaths after contacting Garb as the author of the report. Garb stated that he did not intend to estimate the number of deaths in Gaza with is report and the report contained a error. The correct number of people in Mawasi should be 0.7 million instead of 0.5 million [11-13] (Note: As of 2025-06-29,  Garb’s (2025) report (version 2025-06-03), esp. Figure 2, was not corrected.)

In addition, there are reports that about 100,000 Gazans have fled Gaza as of Jan 1, 2025 [14, 15].

Taken the criticism into account, (inappropriately) calculating the number of deaths from Garb’s report, the number of non-missing Gazans is Gaza city (1 million), Central (0.35 million) and Mawasi (0.7 million), in total 2.05 million, resulting in 176,544 missing Palestinians. Subtracting about 100,000 Gazans, who have allegedly fled Gaza, the remaining number of missing Palestinians is 176,544 – 100,000 = 76,544 “missing” Palestinians.

However, considering that Garb will have received considerable political pressure for his report, and he is relying on IDF estimates, in his unclear whether the updates of the IDF estimates after the public outcry are correct.

In addition, the above points of criticism are not relevant for the estimates of the death toll from the other sources, which also estimate a death toll around 400,000 Gazans since October 7, 2023.

Last not least, there is uncertainty regarding number of Gazans on October 7, 2023, which the PCBS (Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics) as  2,226,544 people [2]. However, other source state the projected population in Gaza around 2.3 million people [16].

Summary

In summary, there is large uncertainty regarding the number of deaths in Gaza since October 7, 2023, especially deaths caused by military actions by Israel. There is 1) a lack of data, because of the chaos of war, breakdown of Palestinian infrastructure and the ban of foreign journalists and the targeted killings of local journalists in Gaza by Israel, and 2) strong political interests involved in the reporting of estimates by various parties.

The estimates of the death toll, which are not based on Garb’s report, are between 413,333 [3, The Lancet, extrapolated] and 426,000 [4, citizen science study] deaths until May 2025. The estimates of remaining Gazans ranges between 1.7 million  (Trump) [5] and 1.8 million (Trump, Israel) [6] people, corresponding to 426,544 and 526,544 missing Palestinians. Subtracting 100,000 Gazans, who have fled Gaza, there remains a number of 326,544 to 426,544 Gazans, which are “missing” in Gaza, ie likely dead.

My main conclusions are:

1. The raised criticism regarding Garb’s (2025) report do not apply to the other estimates of the death toll. The estimates deriving the number of killed Gazans from the remaining Gazans should be accounted for the 100,000 Gazans who fled Gaza.
2. Estimates of the death toll are still at least 326,554/56,772 ~5.75 times higher than officially reported.
3. Each death of a civilian, especially of a child, by military aggression is illegal (ie, war crime) and should be treated as such.
4. Under the current uncertainty, from a moral standpoint, it is preferable to err on the side of  a higher number of deaths under the expectation that this will help to stop the atrocities compared to erring on the side of lower number of deaths and not stop ping the atrocities (while preserving transparency and credibility of oneself as a source).

Source: [1]

Refs:
[0] https://www.linkedin.com/in/yaakov-garb-4069ab3/
[1] Garb, Yaakov, 2025, “The Israeli/American/GHF “aid distribution” compounds in Gaza: Dataset and initial analysis of location, context, and internal structure”, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QB75LB, Harvard Dataverse, V1
[2] https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/site/lang__en/881/default.aspx 
[3] Khatib, Rasha et al (2024). Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential. The Lancet, Volume 404, Issue 10449, 237 – 238.
[4] https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7338872230795264000/
[5] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-gaza-population-relocation-1.7457559
[6] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-control-gaza/
[7] https://zeteo.com/p/exclusive-american-security-contractor
[8] https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-27/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-soldiers-ordered-to-shoot-deliberately-at-unarmed-gazans-waiting-for-humanitarian-aid/00000197-ad8e-de01-a39f-ffbe33780000
[9] https://medium.com/@m4xim1l1an/the-grim-arithmetic-idf-data-reveals-377-000-palestinians-unaccounted-for-59f747490e61
[10] https://www.tiktok.com/@hollydali/video/7519562359199763725?_r=1&_t=ZN-8xXG0YXlByA
[11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250625-harvard-report-gaza-missing-misinterpreted-number-israel
[12] https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians-86b40dc1de388e860927495c00880d59
[13] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/26/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians/15fcc18e-52c7-11f0-baaa-ba1025f321a8_story.html
[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-population-down-by-6-since-start-war-palestinian-statistics-bureau-2025-01-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[15] https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/post.aspx?lang=en&ItemID=5901
[16] https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-247-gaza-strip
[17] https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-25-june-2025

Additional References not discussed in the blog (did not have time yet):

[A1] Spagat, M., Pedersen, J., Shikaki, K., Robbins, M., Bendavid, E., Hegre, H., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2025). Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.06.19.25329797

[A2] Scharfenberg, L. (2025-06-29). Die Todeszahlen aus Gaza dürften deutlich höher sein. Süddeutsche Zeitung, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/todeszahlen-gaza-zu-niedrig-li.3275334